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【报告人简介】

Shin-ichi Fukuda Professor of Economics, University of Tokyo. His numerous previous professional appointments include: Associate Professor at Hitotsubashi University; Visiting Scholar at University of Washington; Visiting Scholar at Australian National University; Visiting Professor of Economics at Yale University; Visiting Fellow at the ADB Institute; and a member of Financial System Council at Financial Services Agency in Japan. He specializes in macroeconomic aspects of the Japanese economy. He is the author of over 50 professional publications. He is now serving for the chief-in-editor of two academic journals, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies and Japan and the World Economy. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Yale University.

【内容摘要】

This paper analyzes the effects of unconventional monetary policy in Japan since the end of the 1990s. We explore the effects not only on stabilizing short-term macroeconomic fluctuations such as the GDP gap, but also on medium- and long-term productivity such as total factor productivity (TFP). If the prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment distorts the market price mechanism and causes misallocation of funds, the unconventional monetary policy could reduce the productivity of the economy. The estimation results show that the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s unconventional monetary policy had a significant positive impact on the GDP gap even under a liquidity trap where the policy rate hit its effective lower bound (ELB). However, they also show that unconventional monetary policy had a significant negative impact on TFP growth. The results suggest that while unconventional monetary policy was effective in boosting the economy in the short term, the prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment may have had a negative impact on medium- and long-term productivity growth in the Japanese economy.

撰稿：赵鹏辉  审核：史永东  单位：金融科技学院